Scenario Planning: Managing for the Future

Contents PART I Introduction Chapter 1: The Development of Scenario Planning Chapter 2: Where Are We Now? Chapter 3: ICL’s Experience of Building Scenarios for Strategic Planning Chapter 4: Linking Scenarios to Strategic Planning Chapter 5: Scenarios to Influence Public Attitudes Chapter 6: Scenarios for Learning Chapter 7: Summary and Conclusions PART II METHODS AND EXAMPLES Computer-Driven Simulations, e.g. StratX The European Commission’s Methodology The French School Generon Consulting GBN Global Business Network International Futures and the Terra Project SAMI Consulting SCMl SRI Consulting Business Intelligence The Amington Institute The Millennium Project Futures Data PART III CASE STUDIES AMA: Roadmap to Utopia British Airways Cable & Wireless Experience Diabetes 2020: Designing New Business Models for Prevention and Treatment Electrolux: Developing New Business Streams European Commission: Using Scenarios to Great Common Understanding across Different Cultures Finland: A Long-term View KRONE: Scanning the Horizon Morgan Stanley in Japan, 2002 Pharma Futures: Multistakeholder Scenario Planning for the Global Pharmaceutical Industry through 2015 Shell’s Planning System in the 1990s Surrey Vision 2020 The UK National Health Service United Distillers’ Experience: Investigating Market Potential PART IV EXAMPLES OF SCENARIOS Scenarios Developed by ICL - Mark I Scenarios Developed by ICL - Mark II Scenarios for the Telecom Supply Industry The Hemingford Scenarios Scenarios for the Future of Biosciences in 2020 and Beyond Scenarios for Organisations in the Twenty-first Century Scenarios for Scotland Shell Global Scenarios to 2025 The Challenge Forum Global Scenarios for 2025 Z/Yen Scenarios for Voluntary-Sector Organisations